Luxury at a Crossroad: Is Rolex Overplaying Scarcity?

There was a time when buying a Rolex was simple—walk in, point to the one you like, and walk out with it.

Today, Rolex boutiques feel more like art galleries - filled with watches, but none for sale.

Ask for a Submariner, and the salesperson will offer a smile, a rehearsed apology, and a reminder that “availability is impossible to predict.”

The Daytona? Just forget about it.

Unless you’re a high-spending VIP or have years of purchase history, you’re not getting one at retail.

For most buyers, the only real option is the resale market. And that’s where things get messy.

Rolex has always been exclusive - that’s part of the brand’s mystique.

For decades, Rolex perfected the art of controlled scarcity.

But the past few years have pushed that scarcity to the extreme.

A surge of new wealth, social media-fuelled hype, and growing demand from status-conscious buyers turned Rolex into an investment vehicle.

Suddenly, a stainless steel Daytona was a financial asset, flipping for 3x the retail price.

The company stuck to its formula - controlling supply, keeping demand sky-high, and maintaining the illusion that Rolex is a brand you earn, not just buy.

That strategy worked… until it didn’t.

For years, Rolex played the scarcity game better than anyone.

But now, some customers are losing patience.

Lifelong collectors - people who genuinely love the brand - are being pushed aside in favour of whales who drop six figures on jewellery and other luxury goods just to get access to a watch.

First-time buyers, excited to own their dream Rolex, are met with two options: wait years or pay an outrageous premium on the resale market.

And in an era where luxury is being redefined, buyers are more open to exploring brands that deliver value and availability.

A stainless steel Daytona, which retails for around $15,000, could fetch more than double that on the secondary market.

Buyers who once saw Rolex as the only option are now exploring alternatives - because why play the waiting game when there are other high-quality watches available today?

Some turned to Omega, Cartier, or even independent brands like F.P. Journe and Patek Philippe.

Sensing trouble, Rolex took an unexpected step in 2022: launching its own Certified Pre-Owned (CPO) program.

On paper, it was a move to regain control of the resale market. Authorised dealers could now sell pre-owned Rolexes at official, Rolex-approved prices.

In reality, it raised more questions than answers.

Why should buyers pay more for a used watch from an authorised dealer when secondary market prices were already cooling?

Was this Rolex’s way of legitimising inflated prices, ensuring that its watches always remained expensive, no matter what?

The response was mixed.

Some saw it as Rolex protecting its brand value. Others saw it as a blatant money grab.

Either way, one thing was clear - the old model wasn’t working as seamlessly as before.

Scarcity fuels desire, but too much of it breeds frustration.

Ferrari, Hermès, and Patek Philippe have mastered the balance - limiting supply but still ensuring their most loyal customers can buy.

Rolex, on the other hand, is walking a fine line.

The very exclusivity that fuelled demand is starting to feel like a trap - buyers are frustrated, and the resale market is booming.

If it loosens supply, it risks losing its aura of exclusivity. If it tightens supply further, it risks alienating even more buyers.

So, what's the lesson?

Scarcity can create demand, but overdoing it risks turning exclusivity into frustration.

In business, you can't just play the supply-and-demand game - you’ve got to keep your customers engaged and satisfied, or they’ll find something else.

The key is balancing demand with accessibility - keep your customers close, or they'll start looking elsewhere.