Shrikant Chouhan    shrikant.chouhan@kotak.com  +91 22 6621 6360

"The secret of success is constancy of purpose."

Short term trend: Up (Up above 5780/19245 (closings)); Medium term trend: Up (Up above 5600/18690 (closings));
Long term trend: Up
NIFTY: 20 SDMA: 5785, 50 SDMA: 5573 AND 200 SDMA: 5735

Nifty - Daily

The week past and expected

In the last week except on Monday rest other days Nifty remained into upward trend. The market has even confirmed the fresh bottom at 5690 (quarterly low) and again the "specific level" has proved its significance even when the trend is highly volatile. On weekly basis the market has formed inverse hammer that may act as a continuation pattern for upward trend if in the current week the market sustains above 5912/18695. Certainly, the previous highest level 5944/19811 will act as a major hurdle but if pattern works then we may even see the market heading towards 6070/20245 levels minimum on the higher side.
Sector specific: Especially Auto and Metal stocks remained in limelight and further continuation is not ruled out in the current week. Banks and FMCG remained in rising trend but in line with the trend of the market. IT, Capital goods and Power sectors performed badly in the last week and last week's lowest levels will act as a major supports for them. In case if the market remained weak then we may expect more bearishness from these sectors. Reality, PHARMA and Telecom sector may be in the process of forming their fresh higher bottoms.
Global: World equity markets are continuing their upward trend versus Dollar. Furthermore weakness in dollar and appreciation in rupee in the near term is not ruled out that may have positive impact for our equities too. Commodity markets are now a day's parallel markets to equity due to weakness in dollar and might attract more participants in the near term to join the rally of especially Silver and Gold.
For the day the strategy should to trade long if cash nifty trades above 5897 for more than 15 minutes of initial trading. In that case keep a tight stop loss at 5864 for the target 5948 and above that 5995 seems achievable. Selling is advisable only if it trades below 5864 with a minimum target of 5830 and maximum 5800, stop loss should be at 5897.

Research Team

K. Kathirvelu
Production
k.kathirvelu@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6311

Sanjeev Zarbade
Capital Goods, Engineering
sanjeev.zarbade@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6305

Saday Sinha
Banking, NBFC, Economy
saday.sinha@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6312

Ritwik Rai
FMCG, Media
ritwik.rai@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6310

Jayesh Kumar
Economy
kumar.jayesh@kotak.com
+91 22 6652 9172

Arun Agarwal
Automobiles
arun.agarwal@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6143

Sumit Pokharna
Oil and Gas
sumit.pokharna@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6313

Shrikant Chouhan
Technical analyst
shrikant.chouhan@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6360

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